Last month, Hopper had voiced concerns to NPR that the ongoing tariff investigation was "wiping out a decade of solar job growth." "The president's action is a much-needed reprieve from this industry-crushing probe," said Abigail Ross Hopper, the president and chief executive officer of the Solar Energy Industries Association. The country should also have a traceability system for agricultural export products to build up consumer confidence, he said.Īccording to Mr Aat, Thai exporters should prepare for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism that the EU plans to introduce in 2023 to collect a tariff from carbon-intensive products.Climate Misinformation is derailing renewable energy projects across the United States
Mr Aat proposed that Thailand speed up its investments in building infrastructure such as distribution centres, dry ports, or a second bridge to link Nong Khai and Laos. The new railway may pave the way for an influx of Chinese imports such as fresh fruit, vegetables and other products, resulting in a higher trade deficit with China. Mr Aat said another factor to monitor is the impact of the Laos-China high-speed train project, which opened on Dec 3, 2021. Over the past 10 years, the main Thai markets in RCEP have been China, Japan and Vietnam, with more than 50% of exports, while 60% of Thai imports come from China, Japan, and Malaysia. In 2021, Thailand's exports to RCEP countries totalled $144 billion and Thailand's imports were $170 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $25.5 million. Mr Aat warned that the free-trade deal, once implemented, is expected to result in a higher trade deficit for Thailand, particularly with China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Brunei. The implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) early next year may affect Thai exports to a certain extent, he said. He said the university is closely monitoring Omicron infections and a potential trade war between the US and allies against China based on the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act that President Joe Biden is considering. Mr Aat said Thailand's export growth in 2022 will be driven largely by the economic recovery in Thailand's trading partners, a weakening baht at 32-33 baht per US dollar, increasing numbers of vaccinations, and rising demand for healthcare and medical supplies. On Monday, the Commerce Ministry projected this year's outbound shipments to grow by 16% to US$268 billion (about 8.5 trillion baht), boosted by healthy results in the first 11 months of 2021 when Thai exports expanded by 16.4% from the same period of 2020 to $246 billion.įor 2022, the Commerce Ministry forecasts export growth of 3.5-4.5%, reaching $278-280 billion. If the spread of the Omicron variant becomes serious and unabated in 2022, Thai exports are expected to grow by 0.2%, but the possibility of such a scenario is only 30%, said Mr Aat. "But the projection assumes Omicron infections are not severe." "According to the university's study, Thai exports have a 70% possibility of increasing by 4.8% next year to $275 billion," he said. Other challenges include container shortages and high freight rates, increasing world crude oil prices and potential supply chain disruption, according to Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Center for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
Negative factors weighing on the sector include Omicron variant outbreaks, rising inflation among trading partners, and more stringent measures to contain Covid-19 infections in China. Thailand's export growth is forecast to slow to just 0.2-4.8% next year, tallying US$262-275 billion. Stacks of shipping containers at Klong Toey port in Bangkok. Arnun Chonmahatrakool
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